Teacher-TalkMissingLink From: Colleen Keirn (ckeirn@cfa.harvard.edu) Date: Tue Jun 18 2002 - 16:08:45 EDT Next message: David Gray: "Re: [Teacher-Talkmissinglink] oak trees and such" >At 3:04 PM -0600 6/11/02, Gale Greenlee wrote: >> Hello: I wanted to discuss the various methods used to solve >>the following puzzle. So to start the discussion I will present >>the puzzle and then discuss the solution with anyone who is >>interested. Here goes. >> >> >> >>"Salesmen lie 4/7 of the time. We pick a tree in the forest, at >>random, and ask the salesmen (three of them) to tell us what kind >>of a tree it is. All three agree that it is an oak. The >>probability the tree is an oak is 9/73. What portion of the trees >>are oaks?" >> >> >> >Gale Ok, I am going to take a stab at this. I have no basis, other than a hunch, to base it on. I have no idea if I am right, by the way, just coming at this on a Tuesday afternoon. My process/guess: The first bits of information are extraneous. The key information is "The probability the tree is an oak is 9/73." That means for every 73 trees, 9 are oaks. So my guess is 9/73rds of the trees are oaks. Just a thought. I'm really interested in this question now! --Colleen ```-- -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Colleen Keirn Workshop Coordinator The Annenberg Channel c/o Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics 60 Garden Street - MS 82 Cambridge, MA 02138 USA Phone: 617-496-7686 / 800-228-8030 x1 Fax: 617-496-7670 Email: ckeirn@cfa.harvard.edu / channel@learner.org URL: http://www.learner.org _______________________________________________ Teacher-Talkmissinglink mailing list Teacher-Talkmissinglink@learner.org http://www.learner.org/mailman/listinfo/Teacher-Talkmissinglink You may un-subscribe from this email list at any time by using the online form at the above URL. If you have difficulty using this form, please send email to Channel-news-admin@learner.org and our mailing list administrator will assist you. Our privacy policy is posted online at: http://www.learner.org/about/privacy_policy.html ``` Next message: David Gray: "Re: [Teacher-Talkmissinglink] oak trees and such" Previous message: Gale Greenlee: "[Teacher-Talkmissinglink] Fw: probability puzzles" Next in thread: David Gray: "Re: [Teacher-Talkmissinglink] oak trees and such" Reply: David Gray: "Re: [Teacher-Talkmissinglink] oak trees and such" Reply: G1E2sons@aol.com: "Re: [Teacher-Talkmissinglink] oak trees and such" Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] Teacher-TalkMissingLink Main Page Return to Top

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